Transition Scenarios

China and the United States in the Twenty-First Century

Rapkin David P., Thompson William R.

China's rising status in the global economy alongside recent economic stagnation in Europe and the United States has led to considerable speculation that we are in the early stages of a transition in power relations. Commentators have tended to treat this transitional period as a novelty, but history is in fact replete with such systemic transitions – sometimes with perilous results. Can we predict the future by using the past? And, if so, what might history teach us?

With "Transition Scenarios", David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson identify some predictors for power transitions and take readers through possible scenarios for future relations between China and the United States. Each scenario is embedded within a particular theoretical framework, inviting readers to consider the assumptions underlying it. Despite recent interest in the topic, the probability and timing of a power transition – and the processes that might bring it about – remain woefully unclear. Rapkin and Thompson's use of the theoretical tools of international relations to crucial transitions in history helps clarify the current situation and also sheds light on possible future scenarios.

About the Author

David P. Rapkin is associate professor emeritus of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

William R. Thompson is Distinguished Professor and the Donald A. Rogers Professor of Political Science at Indiana University. He lives in Bloomington, IN, and is the author or co-author of numerous books, including "The Arc of War", also published by the University of Chicago Press.

Reviews

"While there is no shortage of books concerned with US-China relations and the potential for conflict with China's rise, 'Transition Scenarios' is the first to systematically employ a scenario building or 'forward reasoning' methodology – and it does so carefully and to great effect, advancing a growing literature in the field of international relations" – Steve Chan, University of Colorado

"Will there be a power transition between the United States and China later this century, and, if so, will it be violent or peaceful? David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson provide a unique analytic framework for thinking about these questions by developing five alternative scenarios for the future based on theoretically guided investigations of the power transitions of the last five centuries. This analytically sophisticated and historically rich study is essential reading for all those interested in one of the most critical policy questions of our age" – Jack S. Levy, Rutgers University

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